I think it would be safe to say that most people who read the news have at least heard of the H5N1 avian influenza virus.  The commercial media sites are doing a pretty good job at instilling fear - sensationalizing every case of flu that might be H5N1 in origin.  I sure hope that mass hysteria doesn't break out - more may die of panic and riots than the virus if this does happen.

So perhaps it is time to take a little look at what data the CDC and WHO has available.  Before I am willing to join the unwashed masses in hysteria - I have a few questions.

1. Exactly how many people have been infected with the H5N1 virus, how many died/survived, and where from?
2. Should we stop traveling to places where infections have occured?  What precautions should be taken at this time, if any?
3. What medications exist at this time to treat the H5N1 virus?
4. Exactly how hard is it to get this H5N1 virus???
5. Are we really going to have a global influenza pandemic, or is the commercial media organizations just "stirring the pot" to keep people reading/listening to their endless sensationalisms and propaganda?

Question 1 can be answered simply by looking at the chart below.  It does appear to be recent enough - and the source is the WHO website.   Please note that 160 people have been identified as infected, 85 of which died as a result.  That makes it a 53% fatality rate in my book.  Ok - I am concerned about the mortality rate.

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO - 30 January 2006

Date of onset	Cambodia		China		Indonesia		Thailand		Turkey		Viet Nam		Total
	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths
2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	3
2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	12	0	0	29	20	46	32
2005	4	4	8	5	16	11	5	2	0	0	61	19	94	41
2006	0	0	2	2	3	3	0	0	12	4	0	0	17	9
Total	4	4	10	7	19	14	22	14	12	4	93	42	160	85

The WHO does not recommend travel restrictions to any country at this time on the basis of this virus.  It does recommend that people stop playing with sick or dying poultry.  Ok, I think I can manage that one with ease.  I never thought about playing around with sick birds - perhaps I am just too boring of a person for that one. 

Tamiflu and a couple other medications (amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir, and zanamivir) have been touted as a treatment for the virus.  However, the University of Pittsburg claims to have created a vaccination that is 100% effective upon the current strain - and did so within 1 month.  They also state they can create updated versions of the vaccination to cover genetic mutations on an as-needed basis.  Ok, I can deal with that.  I am not a chicken farmer, and I don't play with dead birds.  SO - I feel safe enough waiting for the vaccination should the great pandemic begin.

I do not believe the virus, at this time, is particularly easy to catch.  Unless many different strains mutate off the virus as it is now - I really don't think we have a problem.  However, if it does, we very well may have one.  At least that is what the officials at the CDC and WHO is stating.  Perhaps the people who actually work with birds, such as chicken farmers, should wear a mask when in direct contact with birds - whether or not they suspect illness.  The chicken farmers should also entertain the possibility that regular handwashing might not be such a bad idea either.  These precautions may not prevent 100% of all human contamination with the virus, but the odds of mutations are drastically reduced with a reduction in number of people contaminated in the first place.  Unfortunately, I have heard of no educational program in place to prevent these people from becoming infected in the first place.  This makes me scared.

Ok, now what if the great pandemic occurs?   Perhaps if we are lucky, the CDC and WHO will order enough vaccinations for every person in affected areas - free of charge.  I sure would hate to think that some guy without medical insurance skipped a vaccination, caught the virus, mutated the virus, and passed on the mutated virus to everyone he came in contact with over a couple bucks to cover the cost of a vaccination.   At present, the WHO is only purchasing enough medication to treat 3 million people.  If this does turn out to be the great pandemic, exactly HOW do they plan on going about selecting these 3 million people out of a global population that is in the trillions?  No word yet on plans to purchase any vaccinations.

If money must be made, let it be made by selling the movie and book rights.  I am sure those professors at the University of Pittsburg would be happy with the millions upon millions of dollars reaped for the story of the century about prevention of the disease - not counting the Nobel prize money, and worldwide fame that would come to them as well.  It would be in their best long term interest, as well as that of the planet to simply publish the formula online where any country could simply produce enough to cover their own needs.

Brenda Z

Sources:

• http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/01/26/birdflu.vaccine.reut/index.html...

• http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_01_30/e...

• http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,182682,00.html

• http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/avian-flu-humans.htm